Modeling Mode Choice Preferences of E-Scooter Users Using Machine Learning Methods-Case of Istanbul

Abstract

Delays caused by motor vehicle traffic, accidents, and environmental pollution present considerable challenges to sustainable urban mobility. To address these issues, transportation system users are encouraged to adopt active transportation methods, micromobility options, and public transit. Electric scooters have become a notably popular micromobility choice, especially following the emergence of vehicle-sharing companies in 2018, a trend that gained further momentum during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study explored the demographic characteristics, attitudes, and behaviors of e-scooter users in Istanbul through an online survey conducted from 1 September 2023 to 1 May 2024. A total of 462 e-scooter users participated, providing valuable insights into their preferred modes of transportation across 24 different scenarios specifically designed for this research. The responses were analyzed using various machine learning techniques, including Artificial Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting methods. Among the models developed, the Decision Tree model exhibited the highest overall performance, demonstrating strong accuracy and predictive capabilities across all classifications. Notably, all models significantly surpassed the accuracy of discrete choice models reported in existing literature, underscoring the effectiveness of machine learning approaches in modeling transportation mode choices. The models created in this study can serve various purposes for researchers, central and local authorities, as well as e-scooter service providers, supporting their strategic and operational decision-making processes. Future research could explore different machine learning methodologies to create a model that more accurately reflects individual preferences across diverse urban environments. These models can assist in developing sustainable mobility policies and reducing the environmental footprint of urban transportation systems.