Design an integrated strategic resource planning to analyze the development of renewable energy sources

Abstract

Iran holds the world's second-largest proven oil reserves and fourth-largest gas reserves. However, the heavy reliance on highly subsidized fossil fuel resources, coupled with growing demand, has led to their depletion and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This research introduces a cost-effective hybrid system, based on integrated strategic resource planning, to analyze the development of renewable energy sources. The goal is to minimize the overall cost of this hybrid power generation system on a national level from 2020 to 2050. This involves accounting for evolving power plant technologies, fluctuating fossil fuel prices, environmental concerns, demand-side management, and neural network models. The proposed model aids policymakers in medium and long-term planning and assesses the impact of renewable technology adoption and distributed generation on energy consumption and GHG emissions in Iran's power plant sector. The analysis across different scenarios reveals the most efficient way to utilize the full capacity of each power plant for installation and production. Though cheap reserves of hydrocarbon fuels have shaded the use of renewable sources and efficient power plants in Iran, the share of total renewable energy sources in the production cycle will rise and the emission of greenhouse gases will be diminished.