An Analysis of How Economic and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Affect the Cryptocurrency Market

Abstract

This study examines how Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) affect the returns of ten different cryptoassets using Quantile Regression (QR) and Robust Least Squares (RLS) methods. Quantile regression allows a nuanced examination of how these uncertainties affect returns at different levels under market conditions. Using monthly data from January 1, 2018, to June 1, 2024, the analysis shows that MPU has a negative impact on cryptoasset returns under normal and bull market conditions. However, this effect diminishes during bear market periods. Conversely, EPU has a significant negative impact only during bull markets. These results suggest that market conditions critically shape the sensitivity of cryptoassets to uncertainty, with such effects amplified during bull market periods. © 2025, Sosyoekonomi Society. All rights reserved.