Realistic Assessment of Electric Vehicle Policies in Africa: a Case Study of Ghana

Abstract

This research aims to provide a realistic assessment of Ghana's electric vehicle (EV) policy regarding energy requirements, capability to achieve its intended goals, implications to the national grid, and what is required to achieve it. The research uses the historical population census, vehicle registration, the net-zero target of the policy, and the Verhulst pearl curve equation to forecast the EV penetration and energy requirements. The mixed methodologies employed were unique such that it exposed mismatches between EV targets, grid readiness, and renewable energy timelines in a way that cannot be found in other studies. Fuel savings and greenhouse gas emissions were modeled based on the EV policy, penetration targets, and the International Energy Agency fuel economy dataset. The results indicate that the current incentives, and measures in place are inadequate to achieve the policy's objectives. The policy will lead to a 90 % reduction in transportation emissions in 2060, not net-zero emissions, unless higher renewable energy integration is pursued. To meet the policy targets, the capacity of public charging stations must expand by a minimum of 2 GW per year through 2060. Meeting the EV policy goals would increase total electricity demand to 415,390 GWh by 2060, significantly exceeding the BAU projection of 115,170 GWh. However, in the worst-case scenario, a 1 % yearly increase in EV penetration will require 223,249 GWh by 2060. Sensitivity analysis is recommended for future studies.